Petrol Price Likely to Increase by Rs 1.24/Litre, Diesel by Rs 4.49/Litre from February 1

Staff Report
ISLAMABAD: Consumers should brace for a potential hike in fuel prices as petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) are expected to become more expensive in the first half of February 2025, according to industry sources.
Ex-refinery and ex-depot sale prices for petrol, diesel, kerosene, and light diesel oil (LDO) are set to increase from February 1, with the government finalizing the adjustments based on global market trends and taxation policies.
Industry sources revealed that the ex-refinery price of petrol (PMG) may rise by Rs 1.24 per liter, pushing it from Rs 173.55 to Rs 174.79 per liter. Diesel (HSD) is expected to see a larger increase of Rs 4.49 per liter, from Rs 182.26 to Rs 186.75 per liter.
Kerosene oil (Kero) may witness the steepest rise, with a Rs 5.93 per liter jump from Rs 158.83 to Rs 164.76 per liter. Similarly, the price of light diesel oil (LDO) is expected to increase by Rs 5.05 per liter, from Rs 151.68 to Rs 156.73 per liter.
At the ex-depot level, petrol is projected to climb from Rs 256.13 to Rs 257.37 per liter, while diesel may rise from Rs 260.95 to Rs 265.44 per liter. Kerosene oil could go up from Rs 169.25 to Rs 175.18 per liter, and LDO from Rs 156.53 to Rs 161.58 per liter.
The anticipated revision in fuel prices is driven by multiple factors, including current government taxes, which directly influence the final consumer price. Additionally, the Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM), calculated based on existing pricing assumptions, plays a crucial role in determining transportation costs across different regions. Notably, the latest price estimations have been made without any exchange rate adjustment, meaning currency fluctuations have not been factored into the calculations. Furthermore, the premium on petrol (PMG) is estimated at $8.84 per barrel, based on one imported cargo, impacting the overall pricing structure. These elements collectively shape the expected fuel price adjustments for the upcoming revision.
It is worth mentioning here that the final fuel prices will be determined after the remaining one-day Platts data is assessed and government adjustments are finalized. If these price hikes materialize, they could contribute to rising transportation costs and inflation in the country, affecting both businesses and households.