Petrol prices in Pakistan are expected to decline notably from October 16, 2025, with petrol likely to drop by Rs6.10 per litre, offering much-needed relief to consumers struggling with inflation.
The anticipated reduction follows a fall in international oil prices and a stable exchange rate over the past two weeks, according to preliminary calculations prepared for the upcoming fortnightly fuel price review.
As per initial estimates, petrol prices may decrease from Rs268.68 to Rs262.58 per litre, reflecting a 3.7 percent reduction. High-speed diesel (HSD) is also expected to see a smaller cut of Rs0.97 per litre, bringing its price down from Rs276.81 to Rs275.84 per litre. Kerosene oil could fall by Rs2.75 per litre to Rs182.22, while light diesel oil (LDO) may drop by Rs1.64 per litre to Rs163.86.
The decline coincides with a softening of global crude oil benchmarks and a relatively stable Pakistani rupee against the US dollar. The ex-refinery price of petrol is projected to fall from Rs162.96 to Rs156.86 per litre, while high-speed diesel’s ex-refinery rate is expected to decline from Rs174.28 to Rs173.31 per litre. Kerosene and LDO rates are likely to drop to Rs153.86 and Rs142.06 per litre, respectively.
Analysts said the drop in ex-refinery prices reflects easing global demand and a mild correction in international oil markets. The import premium on petrol currently stands at $6.62 per barrel, while diesel’s premium is around $3.20 per barrel. They added that a combination of declining crude oil prices and a stable currency has created space for the government to extend some relief to local consumers.
According to market data, the current fuel price structure includes Rs80.52 per litre in petroleum levy and carbon surcharge on petrol, and Rs79.51 per litre on diesel. The Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM) is Rs8.69 per litre for petrol and Rs6.19 per litre for diesel, while no exchange rate adjustment has been recorded during this review period.
Experts believe the expected price reduction could help ease inflationary pressures and provide short-term relief to the transport and logistics sectors. “The steady rupee performance and decline in global crude prices have opened fiscal room for a downward revision,” said a senior energy analyst, noting that it could slightly stabilize consumer prices over the next few weeks.
The Ministry of Finance is expected to announce the final fuel prices on October 15 after reviewing the latest Platts data and exchange rate movements. The new prices will take effect nationwide from midnight on October 16, 2025.
